"Looking Ahead to the 2015 Atlantic Basin Tropical Storm Season" ..and what happened in 2014?

May 5, 2015

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Following a relatively quiet hurricane season in 2014, the outlook for 2015 appears to show another relatively quiet season is to be expected.

Two commonly referenced sources of hurricane predictions for 2015 are:

* Drs. Klotzback and Gray of Colorado State University

* The Weather Channel Broadcast Group

Their 2015 forecasts are as follows:

	Long Term Average	Colorado State U.	The Weather Channel
Total Named Storms	12	7	9
Hurricanes	6	3	5
Category 3 or Higher (Major Hurricanes)	3	1	1

A number of factors appear to be suggesting that the 2015 season will be quieter than the long term average. These factors include:.

* Sea Surface Temperatures: While warmer SSTs are in place in the Western Atlantic and Caribbean area, there are generally cooler-than-average SSTs dominating in the eastern Atlantic Ocean where most storms form.

* El Nino Event: The Pacific based El Nino has been given a 60 percent chance of persisting into the Fall. The occurrence of an El Nino event typically results in increased wind shear in the Atlantic, and such wind shear often limits or suppresses the formation of storms.

Some additional predictions are interesting to consider for the 2015 Hurricane Season:

* Lower likelihood of a major hurricane hitting the East coast: 15% vs. the average year chance of 31%

* Lower likelihood of a major hurricane hitting along the Gulf Coast: 15% vs. the average year chance of 30%

However......

* Regardless of the pre-season predictions, it only takes one storm event impacting your area of interest to make the season an unpleasant one.

* So it is important for all those with interests along the Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico or Caribbean coastal zones to pay close attention to any tropical systems which may possibly affect those locations.

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Reports During the 2015 Tropical Season

Our usual brief daily recaps will be sent out whenever there is an active tropical system in the Atlantic basin.

And don't forget, you can always check into the active storm page available at:

http://www.rexross.com/weather

and then click on the Active Storms link at the top left of that page.

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A Brief Recap of the 2014 Hurricane Season

2014 was also predicted to be a relatively quiet hurricane season. The actual results appear to confirm that preseason outlook:

	Actual 2014	May, 2014 Prediction
Total Named storms	8	8-13
Hurricanes	6	3-6
Category 3 or Higher (Major Hurricanes)	2	1-2

Some facts about the 2014 Hurricane Season:

- For the ninth consecutive year, no major hurricanes hit the U.S., marking the first time since records began in 1851 the U.S. has gone that long without a Category 3 or stronger hurricane hitting.

The previous record was eight years, set in 1861 - 1868. Wilma of 2005 was the last major hurricane to hit the U.S., and was also the last hurricane to hit Florida.

- For the ninth consecutive year, Florida went without a hurricane strike.
This is Florida's longest hurricane-free stretch since records began in 1851. The previous longest hurricane-free streak in Florida was five years, set in 1980 - 1984.

- Arthur was the strongest storm (Category 2 at landfall) to hit the U.S. since Hurricane Ike (also Category 2 at landfall) in 2008.

- The eight named storms were the fewest since 1997.

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