When Does Hurricane Season Begin?

The official onset of Hurricane Season in the Atlantic Basin is June 1. However, the 2016 season has already had a rare January hurricane. The highly unseasonable Alex, the first January Atlantic hurricane in 61 years, did not approach the U.S. but did strike the Azores.

The early season outlook suggests that the 2016 season will be a little more active than the past few years and closer to the long term average.

* El Nino Event: The Pacific based El Nino appears likely to weaken during the early 2016 topical season. The occurrence of an El Nino event typically results in increased wind shear in the Atlantic, and such wind shear often limits or suppresses the formation of storms. Without that El Nino driven wind shear, storms are more likely to form and strengthen as they cross the Southern Atlantic without their tops being blown off, which often causes them to weaken and/or dissipate.

* Sea Surface Temperatures: On the other hand, sea surface temperatures in the northern Atlantic are cooler than average. This can cause atmospheric conditions which are unfavorable for the development and strengthening of Atlantic storms.

* Other Factors: Many other factors, such as the presence or absence of dry air conditions in the Southern Atlantic, and large scale air circulation patterns also affect the formation and strengthening of tropical systems.

However......

* Regardless of the pre-season predictions, it only takes one storm event impacting your area of interest to make the season an unpleasant one.

* So it is important for all those with interests along the Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico or Caribbean coastal zones to pay close attention to any tropical systems which may possibly affect those locations.