Rex Ross Web Site Special Weather Feature

"Looking Ahead to the 2016 Atlantic Basin
Tropical Storm Season"

..and what happened in 2015?
May 18 2016

Following a relatively quiet hurricane season in 2015, the outlook for 2016 appears to show a tropical season closer to an average season.

Two commonly referenced sources of hurricane predictions for 2016 are:

* Drs. Klotzback and Gray of Colorado State University

* The Weather Channel Broadcast Group

Their 2016 forecasts are as follows:

  2015 Actual Long Term Average 2016
Colorado State U.
2016 Weather Channel
Total Named Storms 11 12 13 14
Hurricanes 4 6 6 8
Category 3 or Higher (Major Hurricanes) 2 3 2 3

When Does Hurricane Season Begin?

The official onset of Hurricane Season in the Atlantic Basin is June 1. However, the 2016 season has already had a rare January hurricane. The highly unseasonable Alex, the first January Atlantic hurricane in 61 years, did not approach the U.S. but did strike the Azores.

The early season outlook suggests that the 2016 season will be a little more active than the past few years and closer to the long term average.

* El Nino Event: The Pacific based El Nino appears likely to weaken during the early 2016 topical season. The occurrence of an El Nino event typically results in increased wind shear in the Atlantic, and such wind shear often limits or suppresses the formation of storms. Without that El Nino driven wind shear, storms are more likely to form and strengthen as they cross the Southern Atlantic without their tops being blown off, which often causes them to weaken and/or dissipate.

* Sea Surface Temperatures: On the other hand, sea surface temperatures in the northern Atlantic are cooler than average. This can cause atmospheric conditions which are unfavorable for the development and strengthening of Atlantic storms.

* Other Factors: Many other factors, such as the presence or absence of dry air conditions in the Southern Atlantic, and large scale air circulation patterns also affect the formation and strengthening of tropical systems.


* Regardless of the pre-season predictions, it only takes one storm event impacting your area of interest to make the season an unpleasant one.

* So it is important for all those with interests along the Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico or Caribbean coastal zones to pay close attention to any tropical systems which may possibly affect those locations.

Reports During the 2016 Tropical Season

Our usual brief daily recaps will be sent out whenever there is an active tropical system in the Atlantic basin.

And don't forget, you can always check the active storm page available at:

and then click on the Active Storms link at the top left of that page.