Rex Ross Web Site | Special Weather Feature |
"Looking Ahead to the 2017 Atlantic Basin Tropical Storm Season" Earlier Estimates of Activity Have Now Been Increased Revised as of June 1, 2017 |
June 4, 2017 |
2016 Actual | Long Term Average | 2017 Colorado State U. |
2017 Weather Channel | |
Total Named Storms | 15 | 12 | 11 / 14 | 12 / 14 |
Hurricanes | 7 | 6 | 4 / 6 | 6 / 7 |
Category 3 or Higher (Major Hurricanes) | 3 | 3 | 2 / 2 | 2 / 3 |
Why The Increase in Expected Activity?
* El Nino Event:
The current thinking is that there is now a reduced potential for both the development of and the strength of an El Nino event for this tropical season.
The occurrence of an El Nino event typically results in increased wind shear in the Atlantic, and such wind shear often limits or suppresses the formation of storms. Without that El Nino driven wind shear, storms are more likely to form and strengthen as they cross the Southern Atlantic without their tops being blown off, which often causes them to weaken and/or dissipate.
* Sea Surface Temperatures:
A recent anomalous warming of water in the Atlantic basin has been observed.
However......
* Regardless of the pre-season predictions, it only takes one storm event impacting your area of interest to make the season an unpleasant one.
* So it is important for all those with interests along the Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico or Caribbean coastal zones to pay close attention to any tropical systems which may possibly affect those locations.
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