Rex Ross Web Site Special Weather Feature

"Looking Ahead to the 2017 Atlantic Basin
Tropical Storm Season"

Earlier Estimates of Activity Have Now Been Increased

Revised as of June 1, 2017
June 4, 2017

Two commonly referenced sources of hurricane predictions for 2017 are:

* Colorado State University

* The Weather Channel Broadcast Group

On June 1, 2017 both groups increased their outlook for 2017 tropical activity in the Atlantic Basin.

The following table shows their original forecast as set in early May, and their revised estimates as of June 1,
with the new forecast levels of activity shown in Red

  2016 Actual Long Term Average 2017
Colorado State U.
2017 Weather Channel
Total Named Storms 15 12 11 / 14 12 / 14
Hurricanes 7 6 4 / 6 6 / 7
Category 3 or Higher (Major Hurricanes) 3 3 2 / 2 2 / 3

Why The Increase in Expected Activity?

* El Nino Event:

The current thinking is that there is now a reduced potential for both the development of and the strength of an El Nino event for this tropical season.

The occurrence of an El Nino event typically results in increased wind shear in the Atlantic, and such wind shear often limits or suppresses the formation of storms. Without that El Nino driven wind shear, storms are more likely to form and strengthen as they cross the Southern Atlantic without their tops being blown off, which often causes them to weaken and/or dissipate.

* Sea Surface Temperatures:

A recent anomalous warming of water in the Atlantic basin has been observed.


* Regardless of the pre-season predictions, it only takes one storm event impacting your area of interest to make the season an unpleasant one.

* So it is important for all those with interests along the Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico or Caribbean coastal zones to pay close attention to any tropical systems which may possibly affect those locations.

Reports During the 2017 Tropical Season

Our usual brief daily recaps will be sent out whenever there is an active tropical system in the Atlantic basin.

And don't forget, you can always check the active storm page available at:

and then click on the Active Storms link at the top left of that page.