Rex Ross Web Site Special Weather Feature

"Looking Ahead to the 2019 Atlantic Basin
Tropical Storm Season"
May 11, 2019

Following an active hurricane season in 2018, the outlook for 2019 appears to show a tropical season closer to, but perhaps slightly higher than, the long term seaon averages.

Two commonly referenced sources of hurricane predictions for 2019 are:

* Colorado State University

* The Weather Channel

Their 2019 forecasts are as follows:

  2018 Predicted 2018 Actual 30 Year Average 2019
Colorado State U.
2019 Weather Channel
Total Named Storms 14 15 12 13 14
Hurricanes 6.5 8 6 5 7
Category 3 or Higher (Major Hurricanes) 2.5 2 2 2 3

When Does Hurricane Season Begin?

The official onset of Hurricane Season in the Atlantic Basin is June 1, with the offical season ending November 30.

However, there are numerous examples of tropical events in the Atlantic basin occuring prior to June 1 and after November 30.

* El Nino Event:

The latest guidance indicates a relatively high chance that El NiƱo will continue through the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season (August through October).

The occurrence of an El Nino event typically results in increased wind shear in the Atlantic, and such wind shear often limits or suppresses the formation of storms. Without that El Nino driven wind shear, storms are more likely to form and strengthen as they cross the Southern Atlantic without their tops being blown off, which often causes them to weaken and/or dissipate.

* Sea Surface Temperatures:

The tropical Atlantic is currently slightly cooler than normal, and the far North Atlantic is much warmer than normal. The subtropical Atlantic is much warmer than normal. This ocean temperature pattern is typically what is observed in less-active hurricane seasons, since strong hurricanes tend to form in the deep tropics.

* Other Factors: Many other factors, such as the presence or absence of dry air conditions in the Southern Atlantic, and large scale air circulation patterns also affect the formation and strengthening of tropical systems.The outlook for this factor is unclear at present.


* Regardless of the pre-season predictions, it only takes only one storm event impacting your area of interest to make the season an unpleasant one.

* So it is important for all those with interests along the Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico or Caribbean coastal zones to pay close attention to any tropical systems which may possibly affect those locations.

Reports During the 2019 Tropical Season

Our usual brief daily recaps will be sent out whenever there is an active tropical system in the Atlantic basin.

And don't forget, you can always check the active storm page available at:

and then click on the Active Storms link at the top left of that page.