Atlantic Basin
A moderately active Atlantic season is expected, with outlooks just under 30-year averages and several factors still worth watching closely.
May 1, 2026
The 2026 pre-season predictions suggest a moderately active year, similar to the 2025 season and again just under the 30-year averages.
Last year's hurricane season was less busy than predicted by the pre-season outlook. The 2025 actual totals were 13 named storms, 5 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes.
| Measure | 2025 Predictions | 2025 Actual | 30 Year Average | 2026 CSU Predictions | TWC 2026 Predictions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Named Storms | 18 | 13 | 14 | 13 | 12 |
| Hurricanes | 9 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 6 |
| Major Hurricanes, Cat 3-5 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2 |
ACE Index
The ACE index, short for Accumulated Cyclone Energy, measures seasonal activity by accounting for storm intensity and longevity as well as the number of storms.
CSU's ACE forecast for 2026 is 90, much lower than the 30-year average of 123. The 2025 actual ACE index was 130, higher than average because of three very strong category 5 hurricanes.
Season Dates
The official Atlantic Basin hurricane season begins June 1 and ends November 30.
The outlook also notes that tropical events can and do occur before June 1 and after November 30.
Storm List
Once a tropical system reaches tropical storm intensity, with winds of 39 mph or more, it receives the next name from this list.
If there are more than 21 named storms, later storms use names from an auxiliary list. Greek alphabet names were discontinued after the 2020 season.
Definitions
| Hurricane Category | Wind Speed | Typical Storm Surge |
|---|---|---|
| Tropical Storm | 39-73 mph | |
| 1 | 74-95 mph | 4-5 feet |
| 2 | 96-110 mph | 6-8 feet |
| 3 | 111-129 mph | 9-12 feet |
| 4 | 130-156 mph | 13-18 feet |
| 5 | Over 156 mph | 19 feet or higher |
Hurricane Ike stayed below Category 3 wind speed, yet its large wind field produced a surge more commonly associated with a Category 4 hurricane.
Large Scale Factors
El Nino typically increases wind shear in the Atlantic, which can limit or suppress storm formation. Without that shear, storms are more likely to form and strengthen as they cross the southern Atlantic.
La Nina seasons often have less wind shear and more rising, unstable air, which is more conducive for thunderstorms, tropical storms, and hurricanes.
The outlook describes ENSO as neutral at the time of the report, while climate models indicated a greater than 60% probability that El Nino could develop between late spring and summer 2026 and potentially persist through year-end.
Ocean Heat
As of mid-April 2026, the Atlantic hurricane basin was experiencing high sea surface temperatures, with many areas exceeding 80 degrees Fahrenheit.
The Main Development Region of the Atlantic and the Caribbean remained significantly warm heading into the season.
United States Risk
There is no strong correlation between the number of storms or hurricanes and U.S. landfalls in any given season. One or more predicted storms could hit the United States, or all tropical events may avoid land entirely.
The outlook stresses that the uncertainty about whether and where a storm might make landfall is why coastal residents should prepare each year regardless of the overall forecast.